Understanding Poker Pot Odds
The Pot Odds is the relationship between the money in the pot and the price of a bet you must make to call. If the pot contains $36 and the size of the bet you must call is $6, we divide the $36 by $6 and we get 6, which means that the pot odds are 6 to 1.
Many low-, mid-, and high-limit Texas Hold'em players have no concept of pot odds and how it can affect their profitability. They don't understand the reasoning for playing drawing hands against a large field of opponents. Some hands that are profitable against many players will be a loser or a break even hand with fewer players in the game
First, I want to clarify that when we talk about odds and percentages we are looking at the long run. This is assuming that all possible outcomes will occur according to their probability. Anything can and will happen in the short run. Many players and experts have debated for years as to what actually constitutes the long run. Let's just assume we are talking about millions of hands. In the age of computers, we can simulate millions of hands in a short amount of time. That is more hands than any player will see in a lifetime. But you don't need to play a million hands to grasp the principle of pot odds. Here is a little experiment that you can try that will give you an idea of how the number of players can affect your winning with a hand that has the exact same odds.
This experiment simulates how the number of players will affect a hand that has odds of 3:1 against you. First of all, get a deck of cards and take out the four Aces, twos, threes and fours. You will have 16 cards. Then get coins or chips to use for the experiment.
There will be the four players in the game. Put out a stack of chips for each player. Each player puts one chip in the pot. Shuffle the 16 cards and deal a card. You can be player number one. Each time an Ace is dealt you win. If a 2 is dealt then player number two will collect the money in the pot. Likewise if a 3 or 4 is dealt the respective player will win the pot. Put another chip in the pot for each player and deal again. Keep repeating this until all 16 cards have been dealt. Notice what the results were.
Each time you win a hand you win three chips (one from each of
the other players). Each time you lose a hand you lose one chip. You played 16 hands. You won four hands and lost 12.
You won 12 chips for the four hands you won and lost 12 chips for
the 12 hands you did not win. You broke even.
The odds of winning were 3 to 1 and the pot odds were 3 to 1.
Now you will repeat the process but player number four will not bet. Anytime four wins put the three chips from the pot (yours and the two other player's chips) aside.
At the end of thel6 hands notice the results:
You won the same four hands. But this time you only won 8 chips. You lost 12 hands and lost 12 chips. You are down 4 chips.
Your odds of winning were still 3 to 1, but the pot odds were 2 to 1.
Now put out another stack of chips. This time number four will again play as in the first round and a fifth chip will be put in the pot to simulate an additional player who will not win.
At the end of 16 hands:
You won four hands but this time you won 16 chips. You lost 12 hands and lost 12 chips. You won 4 chips.
Your odds of winning were 3 to 1, but your pot odds were 4 to 1.
With this example you can see how a hand offering the same odds can be profitable when played against a larger field but be unprofitable when you are playing against a limited field.
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Poker Probability And Odds
Probability and odds are the same thing but expressed in different terms. Probability is the chance that an event will occur and is expressed in percentages. The range of an event occurring is between zero and one. To simplify things and allow us to express percentages by using a whole number rather than a decimal we multiply by 100. If the probability of something happening were 0.6 percent we would say there is a 60 percent chance of it happening (0.6 xlOO = 60).
Odds are the ratio between the number of times an event will occur and the number of times it will not happen. It is expressed with two numbers separated by a colon. If there is a 60 percent chance of an event occurring there is a 40 percent chance of it not occurring. We would express the odds as 6:4 for this event. To reduce this further we divide 6/4 and find the odds are 1.5:1. In poker and other gambling games, we use odds to express our chances of winning or losing. No matter how you express it, whether you talk percentages or odds, it is all based on mathematics.
There is a sign in the mathematics section of the Boston Museum of Science that reads:
"The theory of probability is nothing more than good sense, confirmed by calculations"
Sometimes when playing poker we throw our good sense out the window in hopes of an outcome that is contrary to sound mathematical principles. When this happens we are playing what I call a "wish" hand. You know the odds against you are astronomical, but you are wishing for a miracle draw. Occasionally you will make your hand, but in the long run you will lose more money.
Any time you are playing a drawing hand, the odds are against you. This means that you will not make your hand more times than you will make it. Most of the time the odds against you will be too large and it will be unprofitable to attempt to draw to the hand.
There will be other times, however, when the odds against you are offset by the money in the pot that you can win. In these situations it is correct to draw to a hand because are receiving the proper "Pot Odds."
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